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心中一份宁静才会有股市中的那份淡定

 
 
 

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我是张程,目前从业于某证券研究所有限责任公司。作为贵州卫视,甘肃卫视,第一财经,中央广播电台,中国教育频道等媒体的特邀嘉宾,经常出现在一些财经节目当中。中央广播电台的2:10和3.15分的机构资金播报节目。以及上午10:30分的土豆网的每日解盘。本人性格开朗,喜欢和股民投资者做朋友。希望能在以后的交流中成为朋友

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满屏皆是涨停板 A股意欲何为?  

2012-05-28 15:53:26|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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 市场在上周跌破半年线过后,今天再度出现了低开。甚至指数出现了继续下探。随后却在工程机械,水泥等板块的带动下出现了拉升。到最后我们看到了大批量的个股出现了涨停的格局。那么,满屏皆是涨停板,A股到底意欲何为?是宣告了短周期的调整的结束还是仅仅是市场的一次假象?接下来我将从以下几个方面来聊一聊我的看法。

    首先,从宏观面来看,随着四月份经济数据的公布,市场对于经济产生了普遍的担忧。而随后领导层的考察江苏和湖北。也显示了不乐观的情况。而随后就是政策的不断出台。但是,我们一直在强调政策的起作用需要有一个过程。因此,市场并没有随着政策的驱动出现止跌企稳的格局。而在经历了连续的政策刺激以及一个一段时间的消化过后。今天市场出现了较大的上涨。尤其是低开下探过后出现的上涨。彻底的带动了人气。我认为如果有利好的进一步刺激。就是在基建的热点一直延续的话,市场就此止跌企稳也是很有可能的。而且,随着国际原油价格的不断回调,汽柴油价格的再度出现下调而且大幅下调的概率还是比较大的。在这种情况下,市场可能出现CPI的大幅回落。那么,在六月份再度下调存款准备金甚至出现降息也是大概率事件。从这个意义上讲也将利好于市场。

    其次,从技术面来看,今天和往日最大的不同不是成交量放了多少。而是今天出现了上涨放量,下跌缩量。说明市场的格局发生了微妙的变换。而且,从今天的数据来看,今天指数基本上是跌到了上升趋势线附近出现了止跌回升。在技术上有着一定的意义。而从市场来看,形成了明显的热点和持续上涨的板块。那就是基建行业。比如水泥,工程机械。尤其是工程机械基本10倍以下的市盈率。又经历过超跌。又有热点的支持。我认为是短期市场的首选。而在市场出现持续的过程中,也将助推市场出现止跌反弹。在前面的博客中给大家提到了,市场调整过后,将迎来2012年最值得期待的行情。当然,到现在也仅仅是有止跌企稳的迹象。最终的判断还需要看股指站上五周均线这个可操作线上。

    再次,从资金面来看,主力资金终于一改流出的局面出现了回流的格局。而且,一直和大家聊到的超级资金也即将金叉。如果一旦机构资金大举进场。市场迎来上涨也将是大概率事件。当然,今天的上涨也与沪深300ETF上市有着很大的关联。所以,这个位置我们可以憧憬。但绝对不可以过于冲动。我们可以进行战略性建仓。但是,不建议满仓介入。

    总之,今天上演的满屏皆是涨停板显示着市场人气出现了一定的恢复。市场热点在不断积聚。短周期如果主力资金继续进场而且股指成功站上五周均线就是我们可以大胆操作的时候了。而当前操作上我认为可以适当参与市场,注意控制仓位!

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